Ken Mayland
Ken Mayland
capital consumer fourth government gulf increases inventory quarter rebuilding spending takes
Consumer spending in the fourth quarter is going to be low, and capital spending and inventory rebuilding is what takes up the slack. There are also increases in government purchases, a lot of that going for Gulf reconstruction.
begin bite capital consumers cumulative economy effect energy half high increases investment rate second willing
Consumers are still willing to spend, even with the high energy prices, and capital investment is booming. By the second half of the year, we'll see the cumulative effect of interest- rate increases begin to bite and the economy slow.
consumer decrease fed knock prices
It's going to take more that a one-month decrease in consumer prices to knock the Fed off it rate-rise bandwagon.
consumers decline indication inevitable month particular retail sales
It is inevitable that we will see a 1% or 1.5% decline in retail sales in an upcoming month as consumers become sated with new vehicles. ... This will not be an indication of any particular vulnerability.
consumer pull reason shell
The consumer is still in there slugging away. There is no reason to think the consumer is going to pull back into some shell and go away.
confidence energy fact heart higher housing interest market moved rates slowing worries
I think we can take heart in the fact that even with all the worries -- about energy prices, higher interest rates and a slowing housing market -- confidence moved higher.
associated below definitely good growth job number track
I think any number below 350,000 is associated with good job growth. I think we are definitely getting back on track for fundamentally good job generation.
north price
We are not there yet. I think anything north of 83 percent, we could see price pressures.
definitely fed funds neutral
We are definitely in the neighborhood of a neutral fed funds rate.
flat impression reading
If anything, this is a pause. My impression is that manufacturing is doing better than the flat reading suggests.
bills bleak deal disrupted fear gasoline great hand home lives pay people sad view worrying
There is a great deal of fear and uncertainty out there. On the one hand it's sad to see peoples' lives disrupted and destroyed. On the other hand, people are worrying about how they are going to pay their gasoline bills and their home heating bills this winter. It makes for a pretty bleak view of the future.
basically call calls commerce current department income ordinary past people savings whereas
What the Commerce Department calls savings is something different from what ordinary people call savings. Commerce calls savings basically current income not spent, whereas individuals call their savings really their wealth, their accumulation of all past savings.
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if nondiscretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't,
cast cold energy notion results spending water
These results cast more cold water on the notion that if non-discretionary spending on energy swells, it must crimp discretionary spending. It hasn't.