Ken Perkins
Ken Perkins
beating consumer couple environment greatest last psyche taken
It's not the greatest macro environment to be going into. The psyche of the consumer has taken a beating the last couple of months,
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The tough head winds are definitely there but March was still a decent month,
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The consumer has not run out of gas yet, provided the job market continues to remain fairly decent.
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The first two quarters of last year were OK but not stellar. If we still have double digit increases in earnings during the third quarter, that would be good news.
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Best Buy traditionally has been the primary player here and taking share very aggressively from some of the other players in the space, but Circuit City looks to have held their own here this holiday season. The discounters have tried to get into the space. Wal-Mart's been very aggressive in moving in there.
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After a stellar September for retailers, it was a given to expect some weakness last month. But this is pretty amazing. I don't think I've seen this much red on the board.
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Economic conditions have improved significantly from March last year when commerce was impeded for much of the month by the run up to the Iraq war. People do appear to be shopping more.
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High energy prices coupled with uncertainty regarding future economic growth and the job situation appear to be disproportionately impacting low-end consumers and hurting sales.
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Instead of hearing about gas woes, we actually saw a handful of companies raise their earnings estimates. That was a nice surprise.
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There's a deep concern that if this thing goes on, a lot of Christmas merchandise hitting the docks can't be transferred.
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Sales of men's apparel has been lagging for some time. Men usually don't shop as frequently as women. When they do, there's only so much of casual clothes men really need.
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If the housing market just levels off, which seems to be happening right now, we'll be OK. But if there's a precipitous drop, then spending could really fall.
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January is turning out to be a real surprise to the positive. So far the same-store numbers that we're getting aren't bad at all.
consumer factors number
There were a number of factors that dampened consumer spending,