Kevin Norrish
Kevin Norrish
aim basket economy global past performance price reasonable target
OPEC has become emboldened by the performance of the global economy in the past year, so a $50 OPEC basket price has become a reasonable target for them to aim at.
couple cut days later less market past perceived price production reacting strength weakness
Paradoxically, the price strength of the past couple of days makes a production cut ... less likely, ... If OPEC does cut production it will be reacting to perceived weakness in market fundamentals later on this year.
consumers dependence dispute edge emphasize energy european gas immediate impact issue potential prices russian served supplies western whilst
Whilst the immediate impact on European energy prices has been negligible, the dispute has served to emphasize the dependence of Western Europe on Russian gas supplies and the issue has the potential to keep European gas consumers on edge for some time.
fairly markets production
Markets have already priced in a fairly sizeable production cut.
continues energy factor key price short term weather
Weather continues to be the key short term factor determining energy price direction.
acceptable available coming crude further lower market members oil plenty present prices stage support tests
With plenty of crude oil available to the market at present and some OPEC members signaling that lower oil prices may be acceptable to the group, the stage may well be set for further tests of support over the coming weeks.
firm meet million projects stream
There are not enough firm projects on stream to meet 1.5 million bpd (demand growth).
extremely focused gasoline markets product remain weak weakness
US product markets remain extremely weak at present, with most of that weakness focused in gasoline markets.
continued four gather last level normal oil patterns politics relative risen shadows
U.S. oil inventories have risen rapidly, relative to normal patterns over the last four weeks. At the level of politics and geopolitical risks, the shadows have continued to gather and darken.
focus inventory market move upwards
If it weren't for the market's focus on short-term inventory data, the market would be a lot higher. We're retracing, even if the move upwards was not as big as it could have been.
concern crude extremely global inventory levels low obvious oil particular product sign
With global inventory still at extremely low levels and particular concern over low product and crude oil inventory in the U.S., there is little obvious sign of any significant weakness.
delivering far function ground investment legacy oil period problem running seeing
What we are seeing is not a function of the world running out of oil. What we are seeing is the legacy of a very long period where investment has been far too low. The problem is getting the oil out of the ground and delivering it to consumers.
above chaos continue expect floor further issue major nigeria potential prices provide supply terms
We would expect the potential for further chaos in Nigeria to provide a floor for prices above $60, and we expect that Nigeria will continue to be a major issue in terms of supply security.
crude move prices summer supports view
This supports our view that crude prices will soften as we move through the summer months.