Kornelius Purps
Kornelius Purps
bank central contain curve inflation lead risk run yield
The ECB has signaled that if there was any risk inflation expectations would run away, they would contain them. With this central bank rate-hike cycle, it may lead to a flat yield curve by April.
bright euro figures investors might remind seen somewhat yield
These somewhat disappointing figures might remind investors that not everything is bright in the euro zone. The long end has seen its yield highs.
advanced assume barrel beat conclude environment fall german growth impression information machine market mind monday oil payroll per price reality report retail sales sell shared start strong tells time treasury week yields
Assume that a time machine is beaming you back to Monday morning. You start the week with the impression of an unexpectedly strong 274k US payroll report in mind. In addition, a clairvoyant tells you that: 1) US retail sales surged by 1.4% m-o-m in April, 2) German growth advanced by 4% q-o-q annualized in Q1 2005, 3) speculation about a revaluation of the Renminbi will intensify, 4) the oil price will fall by about USD 3.50 per barrel this week, 5) and the US Treasury will sell USD 51 bn in Treasury Notes. You make up your mind and conclude that in this environment yields need to go up. At least 99 out of 100 market participants with the same information would have shared your view. But reality is different. Yields are down and down and down again. These are Schwarzenegger markets, no one can beat them.