Larry Sabato
Larry Sabato
Larry Joseph Sabatois an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections...
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It's awful. These two races are the worst possible combination ? nasty and dull. It doesn't get any worse.
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They shore up the party base, making sure that the faithful turn out, and they show that they think the races are important, which sometimes they aren't.
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Off-year races are used for bragging rights by the party that gains a seat or two, but the truth is, they are only sometimes an indicator of the future.
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This is going to be a very difficult race just to get the nomination, not to mention winning the general election. The alternative is that he could practically ask for the Virginia governorship in 2009 and have it; his for the asking if he doesn't have a loss on his record in 2008.
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At a certain point, you have to accept reality, and it's an impressive reality. It should have been a blow-away. It wasn't just any congressional race - it was a race during Bush's summer of sorrow and it came in a state that was ground zero for '04 and possibly will be for '08.
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Expect this protracted race to get down and dirty, with both parties yet again spending freely in Southern Indiana media markets.
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This is going to be a very expensive race between an incumbent and a quasi-incumbent.
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Frist has managed to work himself into the worst of both worlds. He has alienated moderates because of his positions on Terri Schiavo. Then he has alienated conservatives on embryonic stem cell research.
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This is red meat for Democratic activists. Many Democrats wonder if she can be elected in November 2008, so she has to keep the activist Democrats onboard. They're the ones who vote in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.
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He learned that you have to play ball. You have to serve the caucus and the leadership. And one of the primary ways to do that is to raise money for the caucus and help members who are politically in danger at the next election.
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Rendell is not just another governor. He's already been a national figure. He has been (Democratic National Committee) chairman, and he knows the movers and shakers and donors in all 50 states.
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It's awfully tough to attack someone who's served and sacrificed as much as she has.
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For Bush, it's a manmade political disaster on top of a natural disaster. The Bush administration could not have done much worse, it really couldn't. They appeared detached and slow to realize the seriousness of the situation.
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Clearly, Americans love golden oldies, but this golden oldie will have much more difficulty hitting the charts this time around.