Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtelwas a stock, bonds, and equities commentator on the New York City metropolitan area radio. He added a populist flavor to his commentary on the stock market and spoke in a thick Brooklyn accent...
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The Dow components are weak because the Fed is threatening to slow the economy down. Its cyclical components are the ones that are most sensitive to that.
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It is a media event and it will be a big deal, but I don't think that the money managers will go rushing into stocks just simply because we got to Dow 10,000,
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It doesn't tell you anything in terms of the fundamentals. I think there will be a bet made tomorrow (Tuesday) and early Wednesday that the Fed goes 50 basis points (a half-percentage point). If it pays off, I think there will be a trading flurry.
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Suddenly these inflation figures have a psychological impact.
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The abbreviated week will bring with it a rash of economic numbers, culminating in the May job figures on Friday. The Street would like to see some signs of a slowing economic pace so as to assuage the inflation junkies on the Federal Reserve.
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We've been down for six weeks on the S&P 500, and if you stretch a rubber band enough, it's going to snap back, ... The question is 'is this a head fake or will it continue?'
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There are many facets to the market. One facet has been that money managers have been willing to dip their toe in the water.
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The only thing that would shake me would be a fundamental change, if rates would rise dramatically to 7 percent, if the profit margin contraction continued, if the love affair by the public with mutual funds would cool off. The fact that the Dow is fluctuating more than it used to doesn't turn me on or turn me off.
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The only thing that was positive today was that there was nothing negative, especially no lousy economic reports that we've had over the last four trading days. The summer doldrums have not appeared so far.
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We are in a bit of a vacuum with the long three-day weekend coming up. Tomorrow will be a vacuum kind of day.
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When you see this kind of quick move, that's a mechanical sell program from one of the brokerages.
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Tomorrow (Tuesday) we get numbers on industrial production and housing and big reports from Intel, Coke, Johnson & Johnson -- maybe that can turn us around.
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We remain in a stimulus vacuum and the underlying motif this week will be the Federal Reserve meeting next week.
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When we arrive on Monday, we may or may not know the full extent of Hurricane Rita. The stock market can attempt to discount what is discernible, but when it comes to acts of nature, it can only make assumptions.