Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun is a Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors. He oversees the production of existing home sales statistics and the popular Home Buyer and Home Seller survey reports. He regularly appears on CNBC, BBC, Bloomberg Television, and is often quoted in the media. Yun is also a frequent speaker at Real Estate conferences throughout the United States. In March 2008, USA Today listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in...
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The market clearly has some legs left. Buyers who were sitting on the fence, hoping mortgage rates would decline, have decided to make the move now.
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A typical household in the past two years saw about a $20,000 gain in equity. That's not an insignificant chunk. Homeowners see that wealth and use it to buy additional goods.
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The housing market is shifting away from the record-breaking pace of last year to a more sustainable pace.
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You need a strong job market with people in their 20s moving out of their parents' homes before rents recover.
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All housing market indicators are pointing to a move away from the frenzied record sales pace to, I would say, a more healthy rate of activity.
adjust takes time
Sellers are stubborn. It takes a long time for sellers to adjust their expectations.
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People are moving out of these regions to the South and the West. They're putting more supply on the market at the same time there is less demand.
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Any time there's job creation, historically prices don't go down.
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Home-buying is not a snap decision -- people mentally prepare for it and search for homes, and this is a three-to-four-month process. Plus, even with the rise in mortgage rates, they're still below last year's figure and still close to 45-year lows.
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Prices have doubled in some Florida markets over the past four or five years, so the 10 percent increase we're forecasting for the state this year might seem kind of small compared to recent trends.
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In the Midwest, where homes are very affordable and where home prices have risen much slower than the national average, sales are more dependent on job growth in the overall economy.
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Our experience says prices do not go down when there's job creation in the local economy. In local markets where they are flat on jobs, they could see prices decline. But we're projecting 2.3 million new jobs this year. The job market is providing a buffer. It's a counter force to rising rates.
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The larger declines were recorded in the high-priced markets that are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes.
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What we had in the past couple of years was an unprecedented frenzy of activity. That's what we're seeing: A decline from a frenzied, unsustainable rate.