Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
certainly growth high inflation slower somewhat worst
The combination of high inflation and somewhat slower growth is certainly the worst thing for the euro,
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
affected banking change italian past plenty resistance resulted system
As always, protectionism doesn't work. The past resistance to change has resulted in the Italian banking system being still affected by fragmentation, with plenty of small-scale players.
era gone good people regret
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing.
bad becoming conditions few main message recovery
The main message here is that the recovery is becoming more fragmented. (But) we should not be misled by a few bad numbers. The conditions are in place for some recovery in the first part of this year.
coming countries domestic number pressures uneasy
There are a number of countries that are increasingly uneasy about competitive pressures coming from Asia, and the softening of domestic industry.
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
delicate government position pressure reluctant turning
The government was very reluctant to take a position because it's a very delicate situation, but now they are really turning the pressure on.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
available certainly change financial globally horizon japan purchase reduced
With a long-term horizon it will certainly change the situation, not only in Japan but globally ... because reduced liquidity is available for purchase of financial assets.
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
bold clearly might policy risk until wait
There is clearly a risk now that they might be bold enough to tighten policy in December, We think they will wait until March.
chances changed debate victory
The debate may not have changed significantly the chances of victory of the two coalitions.