Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
hike march rate
A March rate hike is a done deal.
christmas committee context cushion decline economy evidence monetary policy sales wage waiting
The monetary policy committee is still waiting for evidence on Christmas (retail) sales and wage negotiations. Then it will cushion the decline in the economy in a context of CPI (inflation) moderation.
affected banking change italian past plenty resistance resulted system
As always, protectionism doesn't work. The past resistance to change has resulted in the Italian banking system being still affected by fragmentation, with plenty of small-scale players.
course despite domestic ease further headline inflation likely oil performance price rate remains
Despite oil price tensions and strengthening domestic demand, the inflation performance remains subdued. Barring another oil spike, the headline rate is likely to ease further during the course of the year.
additional backing early economy euro might provide recovering small support therefore zone
This could provide a small additional backing to the idea that the euro zone economy is recovering and therefore might support an early hike,
bold clearly might policy risk until wait
There is clearly a risk now that they might be bold enough to tighten policy in December, We think they will wait until March.
confident consumer economic interest move needs order rates
In order to move interest rates higher, the ECB needs to be confident about the sustainability of the economic upswing, especially on the consumer side.
appears clear currency cut driving euro flows moment money optimal
It's not that clear cut that intervention will have an impact, ... What appears to be driving down the euro are money flows out of the euro zone. If this is the case, it is not the optimal moment for currency intervention.
continue keen process rapid start
They were very keen to start the process early, ... But once they start, they may not continue at a rapid rate.
hike march means rate stellar strong
It's a stellar performance, a very strong reading. It means a March rate hike is a done deal.
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.