Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
christmas committee context cushion decline economy evidence monetary policy sales wage waiting
The monetary policy committee is still waiting for evidence on Christmas (retail) sales and wage negotiations. Then it will cushion the decline in the economy in a context of CPI (inflation) moderation.
hike march means rate stellar strong
It's a stellar performance, a very strong reading. It means a March rate hike is a done deal.
confident consumer economic interest move needs order rates
In order to move interest rates higher, the ECB needs to be confident about the sustainability of the economic upswing, especially on the consumer side.
economy forced issues problem require strong tackling
Italy's economy has become a real problem and tackling the issues head-on will require a strong government, not one that may be forced into compromises.
likely trend underlying
The underlying trend is encouraging and will likely continue.
economy euro european harder main quicker reason rebound sharp
The main reason for the euro rebound is the sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy, ... The European economy is slowing, but the deceleration is going to be much quicker and harder in the U.S.
hike march rate
A March rate hike is a done deal.
christmas data february gift growing inflated january likely normal purchases return subdued tendency towards turned
As January data are inflated by a growing tendency towards gift vouchers over Christmas, which are then turned into purchases afterwards, a return to normal in February is likely to show up in more subdued sales.
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.
coming countries domestic number pressures uneasy
There are a number of countries that are increasingly uneasy about competitive pressures coming from Asia, and the softening of domestic industry.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
delicate government position pressure reluctant turning
The government was very reluctant to take a position because it's a very delicate situation, but now they are really turning the pressure on.
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
bold clearly might policy risk until wait
There is clearly a risk now that they might be bold enough to tighten policy in December, We think they will wait until March.