Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
bold clearly might policy risk until wait
There is clearly a risk now that they might be bold enough to tighten policy in December, We think they will wait until March.
likely trend underlying
The underlying trend is encouraging and will likely continue.
hike march means rate stellar strong
It's a stellar performance, a very strong reading. It means a March rate hike is a done deal.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
delicate government position pressure reluctant turning
The government was very reluctant to take a position because it's a very delicate situation, but now they are really turning the pressure on.