Lynn Reaser
Lynn Reaser
basically benign economic growth optimal present solid
We have basically an optimal present economic situation, with solid growth and benign inflation.
anxious coming consumers energy fare low point reached seem situation somewhat spirits year
Consumers seem to have rebounded from the low point of spirits this year reached right after the hurricanes struck. But they are still somewhat anxious about the energy situation and how that will fare in the coming months.
corporate management nervous news people
The news makes people nervous about corporate management.
almost attention economic equal four individual months noise pay reports takes tend three trend underlying
They (investors) tend to overreact to individual economic reports which may be more statistical noise than an underlying trend which takes three to four months to develop, ... They tend to pay equal attention to almost any report that is relevant, and some are more significant than others.
areas difficult indicate numbers pockets slowing suggest time within
These numbers really indicate some pockets of weakness. It suggests manufacturers are having a difficult time in some sectors and it does suggest some areas of slowing within the economy.
bigger issue likely near
This is likely to become a much bigger issue as we near the end of the year.
case concerns either inflation recently
It will be ugly. In any case it's only one month's number, but it could either alleviate or exacerbate inflation concerns which have recently accelerated.
far generally market tries trying valley wide
The market generally tries to look forward. It's trying to look over the valley but doesn't know how far or wide that valley will be.
activity business claims next reflect region relatively seems three trend underlying
The underlying trend still seems to be relatively low, but the jobless claims will reflect the destruction to business activity in the region during the next two to three weeks.
affecting certainly consumer continued economy-and-economics energy higher increase job level market prevent prices psychology relative spending strength underlying
The higher level of energy prices is certainly affecting the psychology of consumers. But the underlying strength of the economy, and the continued increase in the relative strength of the underlying job market should prevent consumer spending from collapsing.
ahead beginning chance consumer consumers employees improving increases job market oil prices receiving somewhat stay wage year
The improving job market is boosting consumer sentiment. Employees are beginning to see a somewhat better chance of receiving wage increases this year. If oil prices stabilize as we expect, consumers this year should see their paychecks stay ahead of inflation.
above along components costs delivery easing energy lower paid point prices relief
All the components are above the break-even point of 50. There is also relief in the prices paid component from lower energy costs along with easing in delivery time.
economy firing good growth oil pose prices quarter risk second track
The economy was pretty much firing on all cylinders, and the second quarter showed us still on a good growth track ... but oil prices pose a risk to growth and inflation.
almost continuing economy economy-and-economics firing resilience seen time
The economy was firing on almost all cylinders. It is continuing to show the resilience we've seen time and time again.