Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
Marc Chandleris a well known foreign exchange market analyst, writer, speaker, and professor. On August 19, 2009, Bloomberg L.P. published Chandler's first book, Making Sense of the Dollar...
both companies currency cuts excuses hear helpless helps hurts listen situation stuff
Companies are not helpless in fluctuating currencies. But if you listen to these U.S. companies, you only hear about it when the currency situation hurts them, never when it helps them. I'll listen to these excuses when they acknowledge that this stuff cuts both ways.
early
If this is an escalation ladder, we're still on the very early rungs.
confident less percent
Now they are less than 50 percent confident that there will be any rise.
august favor federal hike june rate reserve retail sales sentiment swing
Sentiment will swing back in favor of a Federal Reserve rate hike in August if June retail sales rebound.
seen trade
I'd say hedging has nothing to do with what we've seen in the trade data.
fed funds increases looking march percent rate statement view
We should be looking at a Fed statement that increases the view of a March rate hike, and our view is that fed funds will be 5 percent by mid-year.
exchange foreign global holiday london market pick problem quiet slack york
The quiet in the market has more to do with the holiday than it does with the strike. Foreign exchange is such a global market that if there's a staffing problem in New York City, they can pick up the slack in London or in other centers.
cycle hikes increases light minutes rate shed
We still don't know how many more rate hikes there are in the cycle and the minutes don't really shed light on that. But rate hike increases are probably not large.
broad trading
We're still consolidating in a broad trading range.
carry momentum people playing trade
There are some people playing the carry trade and there are some people who are momentum players.
finesse move size timing
Ultimately, it is not the size of intervention that matters, but the timing of the move to finesse the market.
based camp favor march pendulum rate renewed swung
The pendulum has swung back in favor of a March rate hike. The dollar-bull camp is based on the interest-rate differentials. They have really renewed their widening.
dollar expected housing partly permits push starts
The push the dollar is getting is partly on the back of stronger-than-expected housing data. It's not just that housing starts are up. Permits were expected to fall.
record seen short
We've seen speculators try to get out of short yen positions, which were at record levels.