Maureen Allyn
Maureen Allyn
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Employers are reluctant to hire people who can't do the job they want and they're reluctant to pay more.
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People may not be feeling all that good, but they are trying to cheer themselves up. They're not constrained yet, but I do think it is going to set in. The bear market has taken a big, big bite out of wealth, and history tells us when that happens people do sort of cut back.
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The Fed is very happy to see this kind of stabilization, but they're going to be worried about inflation and credit. Honestly, I think the Fed understands how fragile a position the economy is in because when you slow down this fast it sets a lot of stuff in motion. They want to get ahead of that and make sure it doesn't get worse.
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Growth took them by surprise last year so I think this is paying back for all that growth we had last year.
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Companies have to learn to live with keeping their costs down. They're not going to get pricing power not in our lifetime, I'm afraid. The world is just much too competitive.
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Private sector credit from 1999 through the first half of 2001 was adding $1.2 trillion per year. It was the mother of all credit expansions.
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There's a difference between being stable and starting to grow again. I think that's what we're hearing from companies, too - the worst may be over, but we really don't see the upside coming, and that's what these jobless claims suggest.
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You really don't want to do any sudden moves. The economy is doing really well. Why fix it? It doesn't need fixing.
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The August jobs report gave Wall Street just what it wanted.
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We just don't see the wage pressures and I think the bond market is so happy because that means there really isn't any threat of inflation out there. Remember all those terrible surprises we used to get on Fridays? It's about time the bond market got a good one.
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With profits in such a tailspin, I'm revising down my capital expenditure outlook for the next six to nine months, and (I see) almost zero job growth for rest of this year.
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We're growing vigorously, and I think that the bond market is right to be a little bit concerned about this. It's not the data we've gotten, but the data we didn't get. We didn't get a slowdown in the second quarter. That, I think, is going to make the Fed very nervous.
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What we're getting are increasing signs of caution on the part of consumer. You simply can't be in this society and read all the headlines about job losses going on without wondering if this is going to apply to you sometime.
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Volatility should be expected. At some point, really low inflation is bad for earnings. If you can't raise prices you can't bring in the earnings Wall Street wants.