Maureen Allyn
Maureen Allyn
bad bring earnings inflation low prices raise street volatility wall
Volatility should be expected. At some point, really low inflation is bad for earnings. If you can't raise prices you can't bring in the earnings Wall Street wants.
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I thought the first six months of the year would be a white-knuckle ride. But monetary policy is as effective as ever. That money takes time to get in there, but I think it will stabilize things. We shouldn't expect anything to happen until July at earliest, though, and we'll have a few more months of holding our breath here.
begin believe environment later sink sooner
I think we're going to have to begin to believe that we're not in an inflationary environment. Sooner or later it's going to sink in.
heading hope huge investors months next rally recovery six towards worst
I think we are heading into the worst of it. Investors think there we're heading towards a recovery in the next six months and I hope that they are right, but I just don't see the valuations for a huge rally going forward.
higher later oil people prices start
Just as a warning: People better start bracing for higher oil prices later in the year.
bear bite cheer cut feeling happens history market people sort taken tells themselves trying
People may not be feeling all that good, but they are trying to cheer themselves up. They're not constrained yet, but I do think it is going to set in. The bear market has taken a big, big bite out of wealth, and history tells us when that happens people do sort of cut back.
almost capital growth job next nine outlook profits rest revising six zero
With profits in such a tailspin, I'm revising down my capital expenditure outlook for the next six to nine months, and (I see) almost zero job growth for rest of this year.
act bias clear congress event fed looking testimony time warning whether
Greenspan's testimony to Congress is always an event and probably more so this time than usual. We are looking at the Fed with a bias to tightening and we have to get some warning of whether he is going to act on that or not. So what I am looking for is a clear signal.
growth last paying surprise took year
Growth took them by surprise last year so I think this is paying back for all that growth we had last year.
bond good happy inflation market means pressures remember surprises terrible threat time wage
We just don't see the wage pressures and I think the bond market is so happy because that means there really isn't any threat of inflation out there. Remember all those terrible surprises we used to get on Fridays? It's about time the bond market got a good one.
early good panic pay price seen
The price we have to pay for all this is someplace. Early in the century, we're going to see a real good old-fashioned panic of the kind we haven't seen in a long time.
claims difference grow hearing stable starting upside worst
There's a difference between being stable and starting to grow again. I think that's what we're hearing from companies, too - the worst may be over, but we really don't see the upside coming, and that's what these jobless claims suggest.
economy economy-and-economics hit
Realistically, they've done a lot already. The economy may be sleepy, but you don't need to hit it with everything you've got.
adding credit half mother per private sector trillion
Private sector credit from 1999 through the first half of 2001 was adding $1.2 trillion per year. It was the mother of all credit expansions.