Maury Harris
Maury Harris
Maury Harris is a managing director and chief economist for the Americas for UBS. Harris was named among the 2012 Bloomberg 50 Most Influential people in global finance...
both continue continues data despite economic equity evidence markets playing recovery remains role
It remains unclear, of course, what role economic data really are playing in markets just now. Despite evidence that the recovery continues both in the U.S. and abroad, equity markets continue to struggle.
bond market movement moving stocks
The bond market has been moving on two things today: the movement of stocks and this speculation about the yuan.
bond cost economy employment federal full interest market near pick pressure raise rates reserve short slowing term wage worried
The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.
consumer gasoline issue key latest leads prices spike whether
A key issue now will be whether the latest spike in gasoline prices leads to another 'soft spot' in consumer spending.
businesses economy economy-and-economics few force jobs labor limit number operating rebound starts
You typically see a rebound in the labor force when the economy starts to recover. But because businesses are operating so much more efficiently, there's a limit to the number of jobs available. Unemployment could still go up a few ticks.
contained convince easier expect fed gains investors job next rush start
The contained job gains will make it easier for the Fed to convince investors that it will not rush to tighten. We still expect tightening to start only next August.
although coming consumer continues data fade fairly home housing likely months mortgage numbers prices strength suggest
The consumer numbers look fairly strong, although at least some of that strength is likely to fade in coming months if housing continues to weaken. The mortgage applications data suggest home prices are already weakening.
above annual assumed estimate growth percent quarter raised rate rose third total
We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets. We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.