Michael Blythe
Michael Blythe
bottom building data housing mild near sector
Building approvals have been volatile, but with this bounce, and other data like housing credit, it does look like the housing sector is near bottom after a very mild downturn.
antidote australian best caution consumer domestic economic good labor major market outcomes outlook risk shaping
Consumer caution was shaping up as the major domestic risk to the Australian economic outlook in 2006. Good labor market outcomes were always going to be the best antidote to this caution.
inflation lower per rate risks toleration
Policymaker's toleration for inflation risks must be lower when the inflation rate is bumping around 3% per annum,
coming exports last signs
Clearly, exports are the disappointment. Signs that at long last the exports story was coming through, has pretty much disappeared with this release.
australian economy gears half last second several stepped
This is confirming that the Australian economy stepped down several gears in the second half of last year.
anytime bank global growth likely move oil rates side
It's on the side of the ledger for a tightening bias. But with uncertainty about global growth and oil prices, the bank isn't likely to move rates anytime soon.
bank computing continuing difficult environment equipment household increases lower number obviously odds prices reserve resulted retail sit tools
A difficult retail environment resulted in significant discounting, so lower prices for clothing, household appliances, tools and computing equipment are possible. A low CPI number obviously increases the odds on the Reserve Bank continuing to sit on the sidelines.
bank course currency growth medicine monetary moving picking rather reserve showing sideways signs slowing suggest time wages
Signs of slowing growth and wages moving sideways rather than picking up, and of course the currency showing some signs of life, suggest that the Reserve Bank has probably administered enough monetary medicine for the time being.
becomes caution consumer depend extent labor large market persistent theme whether
Whether or not this consumer caution becomes a persistent theme in 2006 will depend to a large extent on labor market trends.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see, ... It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see. It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.