Michael Carliner
Michael Carliner
condo couple face past tremendous
I think we're about to face a glut. There's been a tremendous surge of condo construction and also condo conversions over the past couple of years.
course events normal occurred rebuilding
Rebuilding occurred over years, just in the normal course of events -- I don't think we'll have a building surge here.
clean difficult house livable
With clean water, if you submerge a house for a week, it's not going to be livable anymore. It would be very difficult to get those contaminants out of the houses.
bought buyers home last money next prices saved
When prices go up, buyers say, 'Look how much money I would have saved if I bought last year, and if I don't buy now, I won't be able a new home next year,'
expected
We had expected to see a slowdown, and this confirms it.
additional both demand forward process repair
We're going to have a lot of additional demand for materials, both in the cleanup process and the repair process and going forward in rebuilding.
last saying says
Basically, that's saying that it's unchanged. We were doing well, not as well as last year, but we're doing well, and this says we're still doing well,
home increases predicting price slow
We had been predicting home price increases would slow down. Now they won't slow as quickly.
homes supply
Excluding homes that haven't been started, the months' supply is historically low.
builders buy enthusiasm evidence high market national pricing seen serve share trying
There may have been a little over-enthusiasm trying to serve the high end previously, but we haven't seen any evidence the high end is having problems. We have also seen some national builders trying to buy market share by pricing more aggressively.
dirty flooding gut lost possible repair structures talking wind
In most hurricanes, you're talking about wind damage, lost roofs -- that kind of thing. Flooding is much more insidious. Structures are still standing, but there are devastating effects. With the dirty water, it may never be possible to repair it. You'll have to rebuild, or at least gut it.
bound effect event homes huge hurricane materials overstate worse
I don't want to overstate it but this is such a huge event it's bound to have a big effect on many construction materials and other construction costs. This is 10 times worse than Hurricane Andrew, when 28,000 homes were destroyed.
buying fear later panic
It's not so much profiteering as panic buying out of fear there will be shortages later on.
biggest factor levels material raw record
The biggest factor (in raw material costs) is we're at record levels of residential construction.