Michael Carty
Michael Carty
Michael Cartywas an Irish Fianna Fáil politician. Born in Loughrea, County Galway to Lawrence and Josephine Carty, he was the eldest of seven children. A schoolteacher by profession, he was first elected to Dáil Éireann as a Fianna Fáil TD for the Galway South constituency at the 1957 general election. From 1961 to 1969, he represented the Galway East constituency, and from 1969 to 1973 the Clare–Galway South constituency. He retired from politics in 1973...
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The economy remains in a growth pattern, and normally the market would be responding favorably. But people are worried about inflation, the rise in energy prices and the weak dollar.
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In general, the news continues to be mostly good, but people are now waiting to see what the next rotation will be in stocks, or what the next catalyst will be to move the market higher.
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I think the stock action has been very positive. It's getting to the point where people are more afraid of being out of the market than getting in it.
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Investors are taking a 'wait and see' attitude. They want to see if the market has really bottomed after hitting the lows of the year earlier this week, and if the next leg of this is a rally. I tend to think it is.
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I think we're seeing investors being convinced that we hit the bottom and from here we'll go through some softening of the economy. But if we're going to get back into the market, we want to do it now because the market is a leading indicator.
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The earnings reports and outlooks have been fairly positive, but I think trade has been kind of muddled recently, with the market wanting to give itself room to breathe after the big run it's had.
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I think the markets are basically making time as a result of the Iraq situation. The negatives are being played up, and the positive things not absorbed. With a modest resolution to some of these things we might see a market rally.
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Sentiment, generally, is the big problem now. Even as market fundamentals are starting to improve, people are reluctant to buy,
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In most election years, stocks are up. But when you think about the kinds of policies that are going to be implemented, the market gets a little worried. So, I would say up until the election you will see some very interesting dynamics. If they feel that a demonstration is favorable, drug stocks will get in then and all of a sudden the drug stocks will start looking hot. If the economy seems to be moving along nicely the high-tech new economy-type stocks will continue to do well,
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Most analysts are calling for the market to rise between 5 percent and 10 percent next year, but I think it could be more like 15 percent. The economy is heating up, the employment picture has been improving and companies will begin spending more.
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Stagflation is in the back of the minds of many investors right now. When they see energy getting quirky, they want to duck. And when they see the market rally, they want to take some chips off the table.
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You've got two things: a horrible retail environment ... and oil prices are up to $32 a barrel. When energy prices rise they pervade all aspects of the economy and costs go up. ... The big thing overhanging the market is what we are going to do with Iraq.
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They go into enterprise technology where they allow companies to access all kinds of systems in a secure mode. The company continually introduces products, ... We just jumped in, even at these levels, just about a week ago. We'll continue to buy this stock for many of our accounts. Our analysts are very high on it. We expect it to outperform the market over the next six-to-12 months.
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The market is trying to build a base in what is the third-longest bear market in history. It's not going to end in one day when you're not paying attention. This is a process that you have to go through.