Michael Englund
Michael Englund
damage december economy effect hurricane november positive production seeing start
Overall, the damage from the hurricane on the economy is limited, and by November and December we will start seeing the positive effect on production from rebuilding.
economy inherent january jobs lead remains report risk signs suggest though view volatility
Though inherent volatility in the monthly jobs report may lead to a January dud, all signs suggest that the risk is for a whopper that would solidify the view that the economy remains solid.
data economy
This data will tell us little about the economy going forward,
economy economy-and-economics energy falling gas growth oil price prices proving rate resilient savings spending though
In general, the economy is proving to be resilient to energy and gas price pressure. It's on a growth path. Even though oil prices are higher, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. Therefore, we see consumers' savings rate falling and spending up.
affect ambiguous caution concerned consumers economy increasing key report whether
Consumers are always concerned about the economy but the key is whether they are predisposed to increasing caution when it comes to spending. I think today's report demonstrates that the hurricanes had an ambiguous affect on spending.
benefits consumers economy effect energy inflation interest low net producers rates result sector
The net effect on the economy is always positive. We have more consumers of energy than producers and the result is that the sector that benefits from low inflation and low interest rates comes out ahead.
continue economy likely oil prove resilient rising
The economy will likely continue to prove surprisingly resilient to rising oil prices.
bets bit concerned continue inflation might notion strong supports
Overall, they were a bit concerned about inflation and see strong growth, which supports the notion that they will continue to tighten policy. But after Katrina, all bets on how much they might tighten are off the table,
september surprised weakness
I wouldn't be surprised to see more weakness in the September report.
alter combined data february january likely months robust unlikely
We will likely see payback in February for the outsized January surge. It is unlikely that the combined data for the two months alter the robust trajectory.
belief instead points report simply
Today's report simply reinforces the belief that it will be 25 points instead of 50 points.
businesses equipment expecting investment optimistic plans seem software solid year
We're expecting a solid year for equipment and software spending. Businesses seem to have very optimistic plans for investment in 2006.
boost seeing
We may be seeing the unwinding of the boost from post-Katrina spending.
capacity delicate grenade hand hurricane shortage throws
Going into the hurricane we had a shortage of refining capacity anyway. This just throws a hand grenade into the already delicate balance.