Michael Prell
Michael Prell
concrete judgments list number period practical price questions range specific starting time
Some concrete judgments have to be made. There is a long list of practical questions that need to be addressed, starting with which price index they should use, what the specific number or range should be, and to what time period it should apply.
bubble current decline given large risk seem
In the current cycle, there would seem to be a risk of a particularly large decline in the market, given that, by many conventional metrics, we experienced a speculative bubble of extraordinary proportions.
depart expect fed lately message quite received says statements
The message we've received from Fed statements lately has been quite consistent. I don't expect what he says to depart very much from that.
alter drift general greatly intended market odds rate seems terms unlikely
It seems unlikely that he would say anything that would be intended to greatly alter expectations. I don't see what the market has priced in now, in terms of near-term rate actions, to be at odds with the general drift of policy-makers' thinking.
fed modest occasion surprised
There are observances of the occasion occurring at the Fed on a modest scale. I'm not surprised that there isn't anything more.
apply attempted brakes ended generally past
When we've attempted to apply the brakes in past expansions, we generally ended up skidding into a ditch.