Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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Right now, I think the market needs a catalyst in order to get out of this difficult environment. Hopefully if oil prices continue to decline and move back into the mid $50s, that could turn sentiment more positive on Wall Street.
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A further rise in oil prices and a retreat in Treasury yields could also create more headwinds for the market,
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That's likely to remain the case until we start to resolve a few of the issues overhanging the markets include interest rates, energy prices and the strength of the economy over the next several months.
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Oil prices in the morning would've been the biggest story, but by the close the market's incredible resilience is what investors are left with, ... It's a contrast to how the markets ended yesterday. I think so far higher oil prices have not had a major impact. There are a lot of positives driving the consumer and the stock market.
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This market is just extremely resilient, and if we don't get a major spike up in energy prices or interest rates from current levels, the strong earnings environment we find ourselves in could help carry the markets higher for several more weeks.
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Stock prices moved lower for most of the day, but closed off their lows after oil prices retreated. All in all, there was a lot of hesitation before the earnings by the two tech bellwethers.
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As the day progresses, oil prices have started to dominate trading and lead to weakness in the market.
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Buying enthusiasm dried up as the day progressed. Lingering worries over rising energy prices and higher bond yields may have finally caught up with the market.
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Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.
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So far, we haven't seen a major increase in core inflation, all we've seen is a sharp rise in energy prices. It seems logical that higher energy prices should start to feed through to higher inflation.
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There's a major rise in oil prices, increased investor worry about the upcoming earnings season and you're also seeing some profit-taking after the market's six-week run-up.
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The market is trying to find its footing here, amid what has been a poor start to the year.
below likely number
I think the number is likely to be below the median estimate.
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I think the fact that Greenspan brought the issue of a declining dollar, global trade imbalances and protectionism to the forefront adds to the pressure today.