Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
corporate economic markets news week
It's going to be an interesting week for the markets with a slew of economic and corporate news on tap.
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The mood of the market has clearly improved in recent weeks and this most likely reflects optimism that the Fed is close to the end of its recent rate tightening cycle.
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The news from Cisco was disappointing for tech investors. The longer-term outlook was positive, but shorter term there were a few items in the report that unsettled.
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Despite the Democratic National Convention, the biggest story of the week has been energy prices. That's prevented the market from seeing a bigger rally off these oversold conditions.
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The tone in the market is a little better. We saw strong gains in Japan as they move toward an end to quantitative easing.
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As the day progresses, oil prices have started to dominate trading and lead to weakness in the market.
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Buying enthusiasm dried up as the day progressed. Lingering worries over rising energy prices and higher bond yields may have finally caught up with the market.
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Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.
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Earnings for the fourth quarter have generally met or exceeded expectations. We've seen solid reports from a number of different industries, with strength not just in energy, as in previous quarters in 2005.
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So far, we haven't seen a major increase in core inflation, all we've seen is a sharp rise in energy prices. It seems logical that higher energy prices should start to feed through to higher inflation.
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So far the earnings season has gotten off to an underwhelming start, ... I think the positive news from Intel is just what the market needed and is likely to lead to a favorable opening on Wednesday.
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If Greenspan is more hawkish, implying that rates will rise faster than thought, that may bother investors, ... If Greenspan continues to stress that rates can rise at a 'measured' pace, that may impress the market.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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In terms of the broader market, it looks like we may have entered a short period of consolidation or profit taking following the strong advance at the start of this year.