Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
fact few issues likely markets next remain trading
I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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If we see signs that the economy is in fact slowing, and inflation remains contained, then the pause is a positive for stocks. But if we see tightness in the labor market, pressure in commodity markets, that could suggest we will see further hikes.
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That's likely to remain the case until we start to resolve a few of the issues overhanging the markets include interest rates, energy prices and the strength of the economy over the next several months.
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Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.
current early gains given investors levels likely markets profit reluctant remain rest sell taking
The markets remain overbought at current levels and could see some profit taking at any time. However, market internals remain very positive, so investors are reluctant to sell much into that. Given this scenario, we are likely to see more gains through the rest of the year, and some consolidation in early 2005.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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Just under 30 percent of the S&P 500 report results this week. Among the different industry groups, we'll get a heavy dose of economically sensitive names, including several from the oil and gas, rail, coal and steel industries.
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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With equity markets closing at their lows of the day Tuesday, the likelihood is that trading may get off to weak start on Wednesday morning.