Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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The primary reasons behind the back-to-back triple digit losses for the Dow are fears of a U.S. policy of protectionism against China and rising oil prices.
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Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.
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Buying enthusiasm dried up as the day progressed. Lingering worries over rising energy prices and higher bond yields may have finally caught up with the market.
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The markets are rebounding a little after several sessions of weakness that stemmed from rising oil prices, rising fears of terrorism and a sharp decline in the dollar. Those issues have somewhat abated today, but they are issues the market will continue to face over the next few weeks. As a result, you could see more profit taking.
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I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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Just under 30 percent of the S&P 500 report results this week. Among the different industry groups, we'll get a heavy dose of economically sensitive names, including several from the oil and gas, rail, coal and steel industries.
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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With equity markets closing at their lows of the day Tuesday, the likelihood is that trading may get off to weak start on Wednesday morning.