Nicholas Lardy
Nicholas Lardy
china economic enormous hard step transform
It would be hard to overestimate this as a first step for China. If China can transform its big banks, this will have enormous implications for China's long-term economic growth.
advantages chinese clear cooperation larger market oil side since
The world oil market is very competitive and it is not clear what advantages cooperation could bring, particularly to the Chinese side since they are a much larger participant in the market.
concerned economic longer move president regime secretary short snow term treasury unlikely
I think a big move is very unlikely because the regime is very concerned about maintaining economic growth. I think short term the president and (U.S. Treasury Secretary John) Snow are not going to get what they want. Longer term, it could be a different story.
bush change congress currency deficit enormous force low pressure rate savings trade underlying united value
The Bush administration is under enormous pressure from Congress to do something about the uneven bilateral trade deficit. The underlying force is not the value of their currency but the low savings rate in the United States. If there's no change in the U.S. savings rate, the trade deficit won't go away.
china foreign including looking sources technology
China is looking to foreign companies, including Microsoft, as sources of technology.
change china exchange fact leverage rate sad trade
The sad fact is we don't necessarily have much leverage to get China to change their exchange rate or their trade policies.
biggest capital global huge leave outside player trading
They are the biggest trading nation, they are one of the biggest receivers of capital flows. If you are going to be a global policy- making organization and leave a huge player outside the framework, you aren't going to have much credibility.
close debt party repay shut state
To really make this work, you have to close down some of the inefficient firms that are not going to be able to repay their debt to banks. To date, the state or the party has not had the will to shut down many of these firms.
certainly china denying giving happened helped information questions situation state
There are many unanswered questions surrounding this case. China certainly hasn't helped the situation by giving so little information about what happened and denying he's a state employee.