Oscar Gonzalez
Oscar Gonzalez
achilles demand economic economy fed growing heel increasing interest labor lowering market people primary rates remains robust strongly talking work zero
The labor market remains the Achilles heel of a robust economic recovery, ... With the Fed talking about lowering interest rates to zero to get the economy growing strongly again, getting people back to work and increasing demand may be the Fed's primary worry.
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All eyes will now shift to next week's employment report. The figures we've seen over the past few weeks suggest it will be quite weak. The report may be enough to push the Fed into giving the economy another shot in the arm at their next meeting.
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Consumers, who have kept the economy from drowning during this recession, continued to spend, albeit cautiously, in January and may be leading the way to recovery.
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Jobs are a lagging indicator, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is in fact on the mend. We still expect it will continue to improve through the rest of the year.
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The latest economic releases are just another sign that the economy is quite sick. I am quite confident the Fed will react aggressively.
achilles demand economic economy fed growing heel increasing interest labor lowering market people primary rates remains robust strongly talking work zero
The labor market remains the Achilles heel of a robust economic recovery. With the Fed talking about lowering interest rates to zero to get the economy growing strongly again, getting people back to work and increasing demand may be the Fed's primary worry.
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Inflation is on the mat and not getting up soon. With the U.S. economy still in a recession and economies around the world weak, demand is slack and resulting in no inflationary pressures at all. Simply put, no one can raise prices.
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Since the economy is softening, I expect inflationary pressures to subside. The door is still open for the Fed to continue easing rates, as necessary.
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Stopping at this point is off the table unless there is some unexpected piece of news like a sudden collapse in the housing market.
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I would think the probability of a move (on interest rates) would be somewhere around the 40 percent range.
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Inflation has picked up and there is some pricing power evident. Certainly by saying that, the Fed is telegraphing that they could easily increase rates by 50 basis points if they had to, even though at this point there doesn't seem to be a need for more than a quarter-point hike,
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Record crude prices usually mean record trade gaps. Nobody sees relief on the energy front any time soon.
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Higher oil prices and the stimulus coming from additional spending after Katrina both suggest that Fed would be on the side of raising rates.
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Foreboding. That's the only word for today's report. We could be facing our worst case scenario: rising inflation in a slowing economy.