Phil Dow
Phil Dow
fed learned people predicting
You've got some pretty learned people right now predicting a Fed pause.
caused coast economy focus following gulf major rebuilding resilient since
Rebuilding in the Gulf Coast will be a major focus following the destruction caused by hurricanes in the region. This is yet another demonstration of how resilient the economy has been since Sept. 11, 2001.
anticipate corporate earnings economic growth next people time year
Next year people will still be cautious. At the same time I anticipate corporate earnings and economic growth will come in better than expected,
economy hopefully slowing summer technology
Hopefully we'll see the economy slowing down by the summer and technology will take off.
positive
This could be one of the more important positive tailwinds for the market,
argue hard shock
Once we get over the shock of the headline, I find it hard to argue that this is a negative.
amazing capital profits turn
It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.
balance earnings forward guidance looking market positive response subdued
If you look at the earnings so far, we've had on balance in-line or mildly positive surprises. Yet the guidance going forward had been guarded. If that continues, you're looking at a more subdued market response this week.
capture driving groups guess headed leading market maybe percent represents technology
Right now, technology represents about 24 percent of the capitalization of the S&P, ... My guess is we're headed up to maybe the 20s or maybe 30 percent. If you look back historically, leading groups can capture that much of the market and I think technology's driving the market right now.
months several turnaround
We've got to get through that and it's probably several months before we get a turnaround in any sectors,
additional coming concerned downside economic gradual primarily time
With today's big decline, this isn't a time to be concerned about additional downside but about what can go right in the coming months, primarily a gradual economic recovery,
advantage associates attractive coming computer estimates forward great growing multiple obvious percent research software third trades trying value
We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.