Phil Dow
Phil Dow
guess next position stocks trend year
The overwhelming trend will be more to position portfolios for the next year and my guess is that you'll see some of the stocks that have done well do better,
cautious community economy growth history negatively people percent recent surprised trading translated viewed wall year
This year I was a little surprised (at) how negatively people viewed the economy and that's translated into a very cautious trading community on Wall Street, ... I think we did pretty well. We had a 4.4 percent growth in GDP. That's better than in recent history and better than some of our trading partners.
beginning critical early good guess invested january money positive year
My sense is that January is going to be critical this year and I think you can see a good beginning to the month. I think you can see a positive January and my guess is that's how you're going to see money invested -- early and strongly.
anticipate corporate earnings economic growth next people time year
Next year people will still be cautious. At the same time I anticipate corporate earnings and economic growth will come in better than expected,
basically equal last percent portfolio run three track versus year
If you look at our portfolio that we run here with a three-year track record, basically it's equal to the S&P the last three years. This year we're down about 1.8, 1.9 percent versus an S&P that's significantly more than that down.
america corporate drive earnings economy eventually financial focus general good guide half high home last lower main market people period productive rather second showing stocks time trade unique wears year
I think a productive economy is the main thing people should take home with them. This is a unique period in American history. I think we'll look back on it as a time you wanted to own stocks rather than trade stocks. I think, secondarily, corporate America is showing good earnings reports. The second half of this year may be lower than the second half of last year, but they're still robust, probably in the high teens. I think if you focus on financial guide posts, that eventually will drive prices. I think you'll see the market in general do better as the year wears on.
close depressive economy emotional guess manic point seen wash
I think it's still emotional and we've seen a manic depressive market. It has very little to do with the economy and my guess is it will wash out at some point ? I think we're getting close here.
ahead believes expand holding market news seems volume
I think we are in a recovery, but no one ever believes it ahead of time. To me, it's pretty encouraging to see volume expand when the market is going up. And while the news is not improving, the market seems to be holding up.
capture driving groups guess headed leading market maybe percent represents technology
Right now, technology represents about 24 percent of the capitalization of the S&P, ... My guess is we're headed up to maybe the 20s or maybe 30 percent. If you look back historically, leading groups can capture that much of the market and I think technology's driving the market right now.
caused coast economy focus following gulf major rebuilding resilient since
Rebuilding in the Gulf Coast will be a major focus following the destruction caused by hurricanes in the region. This is yet another demonstration of how resilient the economy has been since Sept. 11, 2001.
immediate looking safe
I think if you're looking for immediate gratification, there's probably no place that's real safe to buy,
folks names
I think most folks are under-diversified, and I'd like to see more names in a portfolio,
asset financial growth guess market solutions stocks styles trying value
This year, the market is trying to tell you to be selective. If you look at the stocks that have moved, it really has not been just 30 big stocks; it's been all asset classes, all styles -- value and growth have delivered. The ones that are really getting fundamental financial guide, post-traction are those that are delivering. So my guess is selectivity is the key, and I think you've got to be in kind of best-of-breed solutions right now.
buy favor hold kinds names periods
Try to buy those kinds of names when they're out of favor and hold on to them for long periods of time,