Phil Dow
Phil Dow
capture driving groups guess headed leading market maybe percent represents technology
Right now, technology represents about 24 percent of the capitalization of the S&P, ... My guess is we're headed up to maybe the 20s or maybe 30 percent. If you look back historically, leading groups can capture that much of the market and I think technology's driving the market right now.
caused coast economy focus following gulf major rebuilding resilient since
Rebuilding in the Gulf Coast will be a major focus following the destruction caused by hurricanes in the region. This is yet another demonstration of how resilient the economy has been since Sept. 11, 2001.
anticipate corporate earnings economic growth next people time year
Next year people will still be cautious. At the same time I anticipate corporate earnings and economic growth will come in better than expected,
economy hopefully slowing summer technology
Hopefully we'll see the economy slowing down by the summer and technology will take off.
positive
This could be one of the more important positive tailwinds for the market,
argue hard shock
Once we get over the shock of the headline, I find it hard to argue that this is a negative.
amazing capital profits turn
It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.
balance earnings forward guidance looking market positive response subdued
If you look at the earnings so far, we've had on balance in-line or mildly positive surprises. Yet the guidance going forward had been guarded. If that continues, you're looking at a more subdued market response this week.
fed learned people predicting
You've got some pretty learned people right now predicting a Fed pause.
basically equal last percent portfolio run three track versus year
If you look at our portfolio that we run here with a three-year track record, basically it's equal to the S&P the last three years. This year we're down about 1.8, 1.9 percent versus an S&P that's significantly more than that down.
guess value
My guess is that value will have its day,
asset financial growth guess market solutions stocks styles trying value
This year, the market is trying to tell you to be selective. If you look at the stocks that have moved, it really has not been just 30 big stocks; it's been all asset classes, all styles -- value and growth have delivered. The ones that are really getting fundamental financial guide, post-traction are those that are delivering. So my guess is selectivity is the key, and I think you've got to be in kind of best-of-breed solutions right now.
months several turnaround
We've got to get through that and it's probably several months before we get a turnaround in any sectors,
additional coming concerned downside economic gradual primarily time
With today's big decline, this isn't a time to be concerned about additional downside but about what can go right in the coming months, primarily a gradual economic recovery,