Phil Dow
Phil Dow
buying expanding transition turned yesterday
My sense is that we may be at a really important transition point. Yesterday was a pretty important day. (The market) turned around on expanding volume, which indicated some real buying going on.
caused coast economy focus following gulf major rebuilding resilient since
Rebuilding in the Gulf Coast will be a major focus following the destruction caused by hurricanes in the region. This is yet another demonstration of how resilient the economy has been since Sept. 11, 2001.
anticipate corporate earnings economic growth next people time year
Next year people will still be cautious. At the same time I anticipate corporate earnings and economic growth will come in better than expected,
economy hopefully slowing summer technology
Hopefully we'll see the economy slowing down by the summer and technology will take off.
positive
This could be one of the more important positive tailwinds for the market,
argue hard shock
Once we get over the shock of the headline, I find it hard to argue that this is a negative.
amazing capital profits turn
It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.
balance earnings forward guidance looking market positive response subdued
If you look at the earnings so far, we've had on balance in-line or mildly positive surprises. Yet the guidance going forward had been guarded. If that continues, you're looking at a more subdued market response this week.
fed learned people predicting
You've got some pretty learned people right now predicting a Fed pause.
capture driving groups guess headed leading market maybe percent represents technology
Right now, technology represents about 24 percent of the capitalization of the S&P, ... My guess is we're headed up to maybe the 20s or maybe 30 percent. If you look back historically, leading groups can capture that much of the market and I think technology's driving the market right now.
basically equal last percent portfolio run three track versus year
If you look at our portfolio that we run here with a three-year track record, basically it's equal to the S&P the last three years. This year we're down about 1.8, 1.9 percent versus an S&P that's significantly more than that down.
guess value
My guess is that value will have its day,
balance business capital cash companies ensure levels record sheets spending stay surprise
One surprise in 2005 will be that business capital spending will be back in a big way especially as cash is at record levels on balance sheets and as companies ensure that they stay competitive.
immediate looking safe
I think if you're looking for immediate gratification, there's probably no place that's real safe to buy,