Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
equally expect mean orderly
For the U.S. as a whole, I expect we're going to have an orderly correction. But that doesn't mean it's going to be equally orderly in all places.
continue economic half hold levels likely lower maybe mortgage next pace past period quite rates
If we see economic indicators continue to weaken at the pace they have weakened in the past month, then I'm wrong. We could not only see mortgage rates continue to soften, but hold at lower levels for quite a substantial period -- maybe the first half of next year. But I don't think that's likely to happen.
confront extremely future high price risk
extremely overvalued and confront a high risk of a future price correction.
bubbling concern fed inflation measured path since start year
On the whole this will assuage some of the concern that's been bubbling up about inflation since the start of the year and should keep the Fed on its measured path for now.
admission fed january locks march neutral odds strong
This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.
fourth reflecting report sector strong
This is a very strong report overall, reflecting of the manufacturing sector rebounding through the fourth quarter.
economy event good month return seemed serious
This is a return to normalcy, and that is especially good after what seemed like a much more serious event for the economy just a month or two ago.
credible talking
If you go back just 90 days, there were credible assertions of $100-a-barrel oil. No one is talking about that anymore.
consumers continue difficult environment high light oil persevere
Consumers continue to persevere in a difficult environment in light of high oil prices,
abysmal consumer extremely face hurricane october played report role spending taking value weak
Taking it at face value, the hurricane played a big role in contributing to the weakness. Consumer spending was abysmal in October and November. It's an extremely weak report overall.
context favorable fed gives inevitable inflation latitude past rate recent seen
This is a very favorable report. In the context of what we've seen in the recent past, the Fed is right to say that inflation has been quiescent. It gives them more latitude to forestall an inevitable rate hike.
based beginning early soft
It's early in the game, but based on what we have seen, this is beginning to play out as a soft landing.
areas future high price risk
These areas are at an especially high risk of future price corrections,
concerned economy economy-and-economics fed inflation lean raising rapidly rates toward
The economy is rapidly getting back on course. The Fed is going to be concerned with inflation risks, and will lean toward raising rates further.