Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
might next shock time
What the shock might be next time is unpredictable.
admission fed january locks march neutral odds strong
This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.
credible talking
If you go back just 90 days, there were credible assertions of $100-a-barrel oil. No one is talking about that anymore.
becoming far income increases price
It is a little concerning. The implication here is that over-valuation is becoming more prevalent. There is no disputing that price increases are far outstripping income gains,
context favorable fed gives inevitable inflation latitude past rate recent seen
This is a very favorable report. In the context of what we've seen in the recent past, the Fed is right to say that inflation has been quiescent. It gives them more latitude to forestall an inevitable rate hike.
bubbling concern fed inflation measured path since start year
On the whole this will assuage some of the concern that's been bubbling up about inflation since the start of the year and should keep the Fed on its measured path for now.
areas conditions labor outside sustained welcome
It's still a welcome number. It showed sustained labor conditions outside of the areas impacted by the two hurricanes.
coming family market peaked report
Today's report confirms that the single-family market has peaked this summer, and it's coming off gradually.
activity august clarify help raises seeing slowing stake
We are seeing a slowing in manufacturing activity in August that raises the stake of the ISM index which will help clarify some of today's confusion.
close later point quarter
We're awfully close to the end of the game. They've got another quarter point in them. We'll see it later this month.
due exactly february january knew mild month spending surprises
There are not a lot of surprises here. We knew February will be a down month in spending after a torrid January due to mild weather. This is exactly what we got.
consumers economy excess healthy major prop spending
We have consumers spending in a healthy but not excess pace. They are an important prop to the economy but not a major driver.
builders continue decline demand eventually expect family housing seen
We have seen and I expect will continue to see a softening of demand for single-family housing that has been unmatched by a decline in construction. Eventually builders get with the program.