Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
anywhere fantasy found good inflation oasis
There's no inflation anywhere to be found in the U.S. economy, and that's good for bonds. It's more than an oasis of prosperity, it's more like Fantasy Island.
confidence consumers cover grand knocking striking
Consumers aren't knocking the cover off the ball. Their confidence isn't a grand slam, but they aren't striking out, either.
creation economy goes job
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.
good
This is not a good report, all things considered.
last song swan
This is Greenspan?s last hurrah. The swan song for the big guy.
buying generators insurance living outlook people plan protect rather sign smart sounds translate weaker
People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
certainly federal higher perception policy prices problem raising reserve seems tea
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
afford anyone subject
It's not a subject that anyone can afford to fail.
america appear august corporate exactly hiring job jobs last problems switch
August isn't exactly a barnburner for job creation. It didn't appear as if corporate America flicked on the hiring switch last month. I think there were a lot of problems plaguing big business. So I don't think we're going to get a big jobs number.
economic fourth generating growth head knew momentum pace quarter three
We already knew that economic growth in the fourth quarter was depressed. The pace of economic growth in the first quarter may be three times as fast, generating a lot of momentum as we head into the summer.
backlash prices pump record seen until
Up until now, we haven't seen any backlash to record prices at the pump from consumers, but now the story is changing,
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
consumer continue employment influence labor movement recovery sideways simply single throughout
We're going to continue to see this throughout 2004, this sideways movement in consumer confidence, simply because we're going to see a very choppy recovery in the labor market, and employment is the single most important influence on consumer attitudes.