Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
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Make no mistake about it. Inflation is building in the pipeline. It is no longer a matter of if, but when, those price pressures will start to affect the general price level.
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As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
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I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.
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Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.
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I can't imagine that these energy prices aren't elevated through the winter. We anticipate even higher prices. Companies don't want to hire ahead of uncertainty.
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The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.
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The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
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The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures.
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It's not really that shocking; we kind of expected it. As the economy begins to moderate, we'll get these sporadic spurts of growth -- like an engine running out of gas. We suspect the trend will remain moderation.
begins economy engine expected growth remain running suspect trend
It's not really that shocking; we kind of expected it, ... As the economy begins to moderate, we'll get these sporadic spurts of growth -- like an engine running out of gas. We suspect the trend will remain moderation.
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The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil.
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The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
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Another rate hike is all but a done deal.
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I can't see the state of job creation changing for the better anytime soon.