Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
america appear august corporate exactly hiring job jobs last problems switch
August isn't exactly a barnburner for job creation. It didn't appear as if corporate America flicked on the hiring switch last month. I think there were a lot of problems plaguing big business. So I don't think we're going to get a big jobs number.
certainly federal higher perception policy prices problem raising reserve seems tea
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
along cannot economic generally increased inflation pass periods problem producers simply
Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
creation fed foot increasing job problem signs stellar
The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
beginning prolonged
I think it's the beginning of a prolonged slowdown, but not a recession.
fed hike intent october rate rule
I think for all intent and purposes, you really have to rule out a Fed rate hike on October 5,
caution coming creation diminished economic entire growth guns job month since stellar stick street trend
We caution investors; one month of stellar job creation does not a trend make. And since the entire Street has diminished economic growth projections for 2005, we have to stick to our guns of slower, not stronger, job creation in coming months.
companies hiring holiday last less retailers
Retailers and construction companies just weren't hiring last month. Retailers did less hiring this holiday season.
fed looking raises rates until
Looking at where we are right now, I don't think the Fed raises rates until 2005.
argument backing days knew later nine ridiculous venezuela willing
The argument is that Venezuela is not willing or they're not going to be able to (comply with the cuts). Here it is eight, nine days later and they're already backing out. We knew it wasn't going to last, but this is a little on the ridiculous side.
complaints-and-complaining entered passed stage
We've passed the complaining stage and entered the actionable phase.
above bare business corporate decision forward hesitant necessity number
There are a number of things weighing heavily on corporate decision making. They're hesitant to go forward with anything above the bare necessity to keep their business profitable.
company heard intentions last ten
You haven't heard one story in the last ten months, 12 months, of any company saying, hey, we have intentions of hiring. We're going to be hiring. No company has said that.
december early inflation outlook picture relatively
The December inflation picture may look relatively benign, but the early 2006 outlook is considerably different.