Robert DiClemente
Robert DiClemente
energy negative period prices recall
I don't recall a period where we had this kind of a surge in energy prices and didn't have some kind of negative fall-out.
additional challenge data might moving officials present rates recent risk
For the Fed, recent developments present an additional challenge because data hint that officials might need to risk an overshoot, moving rates into restrictive territory.
ask fed greenspan man proceed question respect role unique
It's not just how does the Fed proceed without Greenspan, but what's the man going to do. Every question you ask with respect to the Greenspan Fed has this very unique feature, which is his role and his stature.
fate hinges severity
The severity of the downturn still hinges on the fate of consumers.
activity businesses obvious production projects sort variety wary
It's obvious there's a lot of hand-to-mouth production going on, as businesses are still very wary about undertaking big projects or any sort of new activity for a variety of reasons, some intangible.
industrial period point production risen since succeeding turning unlikely
At each such turning point since 1960, industrial production has risen notably over the succeeding 12 months. This period is unlikely to be an exception.
awkward critical doubt fed forecast inflation level nearer rates
You've got this awkward confluence of a Fed that's getting nearer and nearer to some critical level of rates and an inflation forecast that has been more in doubt or more in play than it has been for some time,
employment familiar gap growth possible rapid reflecting subdued
The gap between rapid growth and subdued employment is a familiar story reflecting a possible 'once in a lifetime' surge in productivity,
against potent price sharp stable underlying
Stable long-term expectations are a potent headwind against a sharp acceleration in underlying price trends,
best consumer debt effect equity financial hardest hit households largest likely limited overall past position shocks since slide took
The wealthiest households took the hardest hit from the equity slide over the past two years and had the largest debt exposure. Since these high-income households are in the best position to withstand deterioration in their financial positions, the shocks are likely to have a limited effect on overall consumer spending.