Ron Hill
Ron Hill
Ronald "Ron" Hill MBEis an English runner and clothing entrepreneur. He was the second man to break 2:10 in the marathon; he set world records at four other distances, but never laid claim to the marathon world record. He has run two Olympic Marathons, and has a personal marathon record of 2:09:28. In 1970, Hill won the 74th Boston Marathon in a course record 2:10:30. He also won gold medals for the marathon at the European Championships in 1969 and...
ProfessionRunner
Date of Birth25 September 1938
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I think these companies (are) starting to get more interested in mainframes and security again, and for one-stop shopping, Computer Associates offers a little bit of all these things in one place, ... So, I think the earnings movement is just now coming back to this company.
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We don't have a lot of good news coming in. We had tremendous earnings in the first quarter. Now we've got this hiatus until we see what the second quarter really does. That could give you a chance to slow down a little bit.
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We're focusing much too much on what's moving, which at the margin are the kind of that are negative for stocks and forgetting what's really crucial here. The fact is we are in an excess supply of money relative to the needs of the economy and corporate earnings growth will in fact be quite good in the third quarter.
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We've had one preliminary move in technology, which was an anticipation of (Computer Associates') earnings, the second move is once the earnings have turned and begin to run ahead of the rest of the markets,
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These companies have very steady earnings growth, and they are servicing the Internet in substantial ways, the result of which is often bigger revenues bigger than a lot of the dot.com companies on Internet-related activities.
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I think next year is going to be a reasonably good year. When the Fed starts lowering rates, even though profit growth will be really poor, often some of the best gains in stocks come when earnings are doing poorly, because you're getting a lift from price-to-earnings ratios rising.
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The key thing here is, we're sort of short on liquidity, so we don't have enough money to raise everything. Investors have to focus on good sectors with leading stocks especially with good earnings revision profiles, and where there's support for rising profit and expectations going forward,
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They have not been attractive stocks to own this year because they've had trouble growing revenues, ... But now, all of a sudden, that nice steady growth in earnings -- coupled with the fact that because of the weaker dollar, their translated earnings from international sales are going to be much stronger -- (means) these companies are looking very attractive.
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The markets continue to mark time. Every day we get worries about inflationary pressures and interest rate pressures. Stocks have a hard time rising, but the reasons to rise are still coming through with strong earnings gains.
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The leadership is going to stay with companies that have very strong earnings growth,
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I think if you are short-term trader, the idea is that the summer rally is probably going to be led by technology as we go up here in the near-term. And that means you're going to probably move away from some of the previous leaders. We talked a lot about health care, a lot about energy - some of that money is flowing back to tech right now. But I'm not sure that as we look forward to the third quarter and the fourth quarter, and we grow instead of 7 percent, more like 4 percent, some of those prices are going to come down too. I think you might look for some bargains in health care and energy here, during the sell-off. In technology, I'd look for some big leaders who have a chance to come back.
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Maybe in the packaging area -- as we make things, we have to ship them -- Sealed Air, which is a company that I actually own myself, which makes bubble packing,
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Look (at) metals prices. As we rebuild inventories, as the whole industry economy starts to gear up, these guys (Freeport does) well. As the global economy starts to gears up, they also do well because they have a significant portion of sales overseas,
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We also like some of the others from the cyclical areas like in the industrials, some of the freight companies like FedEx and ... also in the consumer discretionary, automobiles still look like they're good, ... Traditionally they will outperform until the Fed begins to raise interest rates and Mr. Greenspan has postponed that for a few months. That gives companies like General Motors a little bit longer to run.