Rory Robertson
Rory Robertson
falling feed giving helpful lower oil prices quite rising stimulus terms
Rising oil prices are quite unhelpful, and falling prices are quite helpful in terms of giving stimulus to the economy. Lower prices feed through pretty well to everyone immediately.
assumption bond continue entering fact fall falling next people possible recession recovery stock stronger watching year yields
If we hadn't had a recession a year ago, and we were watching the fall in employment, a stalling manufacturing sector, falling bond yields and falling stock prices, many people would think we were entering a recession. There's an assumption that the recovery will continue and get stronger next year, when in fact it's possible the economy's tipping over again.
confidence definitely dip double early great month people saying shortage
It's too early to say with great confidence that things are definitely getting worse, but if we get another month or two of payrolls declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.
basis fed points reflect statement worried
I think it's going to be 50 basis points because the Fed is worried about the economy, and I think the accompanying statement will reflect that.
economy happened mention past rates seven
I think the back-up in rates should rate a mention -- it's the most significant thing that's happened to the economy in the past seven weeks.
coming dream economy extended inclined justify low markets period rates strong understand
The markets are coming to understand that policymakers will be inclined to keep rates very low for an extended period -- the FOMC (Fed rate-setting committee) can still only dream that the economy will be strong enough in 2002 to justify a rate hike.
admitting cutting fed hoping longer sitting
The longer the Fed drags this out without cutting rates, the more they're admitting they don't have much firepower at all. They're sitting on their hands, hoping for the best.
economy playing scenario simply
At this stage, the worst-case scenario for the US economy post-Katrina simply is not playing out.
local looks period tide turning
After a long period of inactivity, the tide looks to be turning on the local interest-rate front.
factors maintained means next number several
This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.
gradual improvement painfully rate
There is a very gradual improvement, but the rate of improvement is painfully slow.