Sam Stovall
Sam Stovall
balance demand energy feeling good seem soon start stocks supply
Our feeling is that energy stocks will be good performers, ... While inventories seem to be in balance with demand now, we see that as being temporary, that demand will soon start to outpace supply this summer.
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I think investors are a lot like dieters. They look at January as a good month to start anew.
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We think investors should own companies like Wal-Mart, like Alberto-Culver and Neighbors Industries because they have good fundamental prospects in a recovering economy,
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The month of May was a counter-trend rally where investors used good news as a reason to temper their bearishness and cancel out short-selling contracts.
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Increased volatility can certainly cause increase tension, but that's not a reason to step out. It is certainly white-knuckle time, but that does not necessarily mean the good run has ended.
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I think investors want to see improvement in the economic data so that the feeling is that the Fed doesn't need to lower interest rates. That in itself is a positive.
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Some of the restaurant companies are doing exceptionally well and I think demographics, longer term, are going to indicate that more people are going to be buying their food outside the home, rather than preparing it inside the home,
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While it is difficult to anticipate unanticipated events, investors could become increasingly concerned about oil, earnings and interest rates -- the trio of trepidation -- in the traditionally weak third quarter.
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Yet the rebuilding of affected areas will likely raise production in the fourth and first quarters.
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We are really not sure if the economy is continuing to expand or continuing to contract,
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The re-emergence of Kerry as a viable candidate has also put some pressure on health care stocks.
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History would say that, whenever we have an extended up-move, chances are you need to catch your breath and go sideways for a while. Is it possible that will happen now? Yes. Is it necessary? No.
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Basically the top ten industries were those that are economically sensitive and are bouncing back from their deeply oversold condition last year as a result of lower interest rates. We do believe the Fed will remain aggressive with its easing interest rate policy but we feel the earnings are going to be pretty bad for the first quarter, so the market is likely to tread water for awhile.
likely
If they don't do it tomorrow, they will likely do it in January.