Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.
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After a spring lull, consumers are back on track. While we do expect some cooling in the fourth quarter due to the pinch from higher energy prices, spending growth remains remarkably resilient.
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The Fed might have been in a dilemma if signs of slower growth were coupled with signs of a wage/price spiral. However, that is emphatically not the case. The underlying inflation outlook is not a problem for the Fed or the financial markets.
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The Christmas season this year might well bring cheer, but consumption growth next year is bound to slow, ... From an annual pace of nearly 4.0 percent in 2004, consumer spending will likely grow at a 3.5 percent rate this year, decelerating to a 2.25 percent pace in 2006.
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Despite slowing job growth momentum, the Fed is going to pay attention to the diminishing slack (the 5 per cent unemployment rate could be as low as 4.8 per cent if not for the hurricanes) and the pickup in wage pressures,
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Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly.
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The modest downtrend in order growth is pointing to some moderation in the months ahead,
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These two key reports reinforce the underlying story of red-hot growth and stable inflation, which was the hallmark of the U.S. economy in 1999,
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However, there are deepening questions as to how far they will go beyond that point, especially given the looming hit to growth from the spike in oil and gas prices and the renewed Canadian dollar rise.
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Foreigners own 11 percent of U.S. stocks -- that's not huge, but at the margin it makes a big difference. And right now there's massive foreign buying of bonds because they're a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty -- that could change as well.
corporate inflation pricing remains virtually
Inflation in the U.S. remains virtually non-existent, as does corporate pricing power.
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Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day.
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The repercussions on global trade would be devastating, ... Given that virtually all major economies have a surplus with the (United States), trade disruptions would shutter manufacturing plants and curtail global demand for most commodities.
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The future path for monetary policy depends critically on at least a flattening out of interest-sensitive spending, ... It is touch-and-go whether the softness in interest-sensitive spending is sufficient to be consistent with the required degree of overall economic slowing.