Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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Despite slowing job growth momentum, the Fed is going to pay attention to the diminishing slack (the 5 per cent unemployment rate could be as low as 4.8 per cent if not for the hurricanes) and the pickup in wage pressures,
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This all but seals the deal on a coming cessation in Fed tightening,
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This production figure emphasizes that the US economy had solid underlying momentum heading into month-end,
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This will provide some offset to the drag caused by the hurricane's direct damage and flooding, which, along with the massive amounts of money being deployed in the affected area, suggest that the ultimate impact of Katrina on GDP might prove more fleeting than first thought.
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In a vibrant economy, you will always have some prices rising and some falling. That's a good thing, and that's what seems to be happening at this stage.
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Clearly the new paradigm is alive and well, ... While (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan downplayed the policy significance of CPI in his remarks last night, it is still a major positive for investors that core inflation remains benign.
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High energy prices keep on working their way through the system. The risks remain skewed to a mild up-creep in core inflation during the months ahead, which will keep the Fed on track for another rate hike in March and likely in May.
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I'm not worried about inflation per se ; I'm worried about inflation in asset prices. When the Fed has been aggressively easy in the past, it's ended up having to come in and aggressively raise interest rates and cause a lot of unnecessary dislocation.
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Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly.
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Inflation in the U.S. remains virtually non-existent, as does corporate pricing power.
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However, there are deepening questions as to how far they will go beyond that point, especially given the looming hit to growth from the spike in oil and gas prices and the renewed Canadian dollar rise.
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I do believe there is still evidence that the economy is red hot, and I think the Federal Reserve will be monitoring the income numbers closely to decide whether to go 25 basis points or 50 at their upcoming policy meeting.
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I do think, however, that it is very important that we, as individuals, protect ourselves; that businesses make contingency plans; and that governments at all levels ? public health officials everywhere ? do what is necessary to minimize the danger of a potential pandemic.
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Consumers remained optimistic about their present situation, but going forward, sentiment is a bit shaky.