Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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Overall, this can be viewed as more evidence that the consumer is hanging in well despite the run-up in oil prices and growing equity market volatility.
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Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day.
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It certainly affects psychology, but if the job market starts growing, that effect is far more important to psychology than something that's happening half a world away.
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Bearing in mind that the Fed wants higher inflation, the news is not unwelcome. And the market will remain firmly in the camp that the Fed will not tighten soon, ... Nevertheless, the risks from the PPI are easy to see and look real in light of the big decline of the dollar and rise in import costs that preceded them.
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Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.
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Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly.
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The U.S. housing market appears to be gradually losing steam under the weight of higher mortgage rates, ... Even so, the market remains exceptionally healthy by any yardstick.
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The markets are assuming that the Fed are finished tightening for the year, ... That presumption might prove to be premature. We, and the Fed, will wait and see.
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The Fed and the markets will see few signs of slowing in these figures, but little reason to fear an impending inflation acceleration either ,
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It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.
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January's results were clearly exaggerated, but the underlying trend is still surprisingly healthy.
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Right now, the acceleration in commodity prices tips the scales for a 16th and a 17th rate hike by the Fed.
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June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary.
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When the 10-year yield got to 4.4 percent Tuesday, I said this was probably a short-term buying opportunity and that we would see some correction.