Sophia Drossos
Sophia Drossos
lack saving states united united-states
Reinforcement of imbalances and lack of saving in the United States is not dollar-friendly.
australian cycle dollar global growth leverage relatively sensitive trade
The Australian dollar is relatively more sensitive to the global growth cycle -- not just commodities, but leverage to trade with Asia, especially China.
backing dollar fact far fast fell interest last rates
But it's nothing really fundamental: Is it interest rates backing up in the U.S.? Rate expectations backing up? Or the fact that the dollar fell too far too fast last week? It's probably a combination of all of that.
add bet excited fire fuel investors policy time
Investors got too excited about a near-term policy change. This is probably not the time to bet on yen strength. We need to add more fuel to the fire to get going.
ahead appear cycle fed investors looking market
Market investors appear to be looking ahead to the end of the Fed tightening cycle and its implications for the dollar.
australian dollar forward indicator sure
But I am not sure (whether) the Australian dollar is a forward indicator or just a concurrent one.
dollar risks skewed
The risks for the dollar are skewed to the upside.
bears cycle deficit dollar focus gradually moving sweet
The dollar is gradually moving out of its sweet spot. Once the Fed's tightening cycle is over, dollar bears are going to focus on the current-account deficit again.
capacity change fed focus statement
The Fed statement hasn't made me change my focus on data. I still think that those that will be important are those that give us a sense of capacity constraints and inflation.
activity caught core cyclical danger data inflation market rise sharp
There could be a cyclical surprise...If we see another sharp rise in core inflation or see activity data to the upside, there's a danger that the market could be caught off balance.
dollar last lost saw selling
We saw a lot of dollar selling last week, so the dollar's regaining some lost territory.
across balance concerned inclined people price relatively risks sees surprise
Through the Q & A, we should get a sense of where he sees the balance of risks ... A lot of people think he is relatively more inclined to be more dovish. But if he comes across as very concerned about price stability, I think that could surprise expectations to some degree.
clarity strengthen
What you really need for the yen to strengthen is some clarity on when ZIRP will end. ZIRP is key.