Sophia Drossos
Sophia Drossos
australian cycle dollar global growth leverage relatively sensitive trade
The Australian dollar is relatively more sensitive to the global growth cycle -- not just commodities, but leverage to trade with Asia, especially China.
ahead appear cycle fed investors looking market
Market investors appear to be looking ahead to the end of the Fed tightening cycle and its implications for the dollar.
lack saving states united united-states
Reinforcement of imbalances and lack of saving in the United States is not dollar-friendly.
backing dollar fact far fast fell interest last rates
But it's nothing really fundamental: Is it interest rates backing up in the U.S.? Rate expectations backing up? Or the fact that the dollar fell too far too fast last week? It's probably a combination of all of that.
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Investors got too excited about a near-term policy change. This is probably not the time to bet on yen strength. We need to add more fuel to the fire to get going.
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But I am not sure (whether) the Australian dollar is a forward indicator or just a concurrent one.
clarity strengthen
What you really need for the yen to strengthen is some clarity on when ZIRP will end. ZIRP is key.