Stephen Jen
Stephen Jen
beginning believe euro financial game
This could be the beginning of an interesting game between the ECB and the financial markets. If they believe the ECB has miscalculated they will take on the euro like never before.
balance capital exchange rate
It's all a very incremental process. They want to rebalance the capital inflows and outflows. Without a balance in flows, you wouldn't want to let the exchange rate find its own place.
beginning doubt strongly wholesale
I strongly doubt that this will be the beginning of wholesale diversification from U.S. dollars.
boat hole seems small though tied
The U.K. is a small boat with a big hole in it, but it's tied to a big ship, that being Europe. Even though it seems like it should sink, it just won't go down.
businesses buy economy european integrated investors offset piece pound proving weakness
Investors want a piece of the integrated European economy and the pound is proving to be a way in. Weakness in the U.K. economy is being offset by the willingness of investors to invest in the country's businesses and buy bonds.
benefits facing fed fog september
Facing the fog of uncertainty, the Fed should see the benefits of pausing on September 20,
against asian bottom line mounting
The bottom line is headwinds are mounting against the Asian economies,
clear currency either looking people point reluctant seems
People are still looking for an interest-rate cut, but it's not at all clear when that will happen. Expectations are very volatile, but the point is that the currency seems very reluctant to go down either way.
becoming decision economy euro integrated investors pound regardless willing
Regardless of the decision on the euro, the U.K. is becoming so well integrated into the euro economy that investors are willing to invest in the pound as a proxy. That has made the pound surprisingly resilient.
consider due event fragile framework general happening indonesia isolated lack mainly scenario start
Indonesia is the first to crack, due mainly to its fragile institutional framework and a general lack of credibility. But we should start to consider the scenario where what is happening in Indonesia may not be an isolated event in Asia.
bonds corporate invest run yield
They can't run out of U.S. exposure. They have Treasuries, cash, the whole yield curve, corporate bonds that they can invest in. They can even invest in paintings.
bottom fed hypothesis likely line maintain september
(After this week's Fed speakers) the bottom line is we will most likely know what the Fed will do before September 20. My ... hypothesis is the Fed will maintain its tightening path, uninterrupted.
inflation labor market recovery retail strong
With the strong labor report, strong retail sales, and the strong inflation report, market expectations of a sustainable U.S. recovery have increased.