Steve Ricchiuto
Steve Ricchiuto
decent economy katrina momentum nice payroll problem tells upside
You've got decent payroll growth, which tells you the economy had some nice upside momentum going into Katrina. But it doesn't tell what the economy has done after Katrina and that's really the problem for the marketplace right now.
apt bond closer consistent continued fairly fed gains growth higher labor percent pressures puts rate seen slow tight toward trend yields
Are we going to slow to the growth that we've seen in this morning's report? ... No. We're probably going to come back to something closer to trend. The Fed puts the trend at about 3 percent. I think we're apt to come back toward the 3 percent level. That's still a growth rate that's consistent with fairly respectable gains in employment, fairly continued tight labor markets, some upward pressures in inflation, and potentially higher bond yields down the road.
economy fed forecasts might people raise rates resilient september supports thesis
People who were really slashing third-quarter GDP forecasts might need to rethink. The economy was more resilient than people thought. It supports the thesis that the Fed will raise rates in September at least,
bias fed holds meetings next raises rates toward
The Fed raises rates the next two meetings and then holds with a bias toward tightening.