Steven Milunovich
Steven Milunovich
ibm next roaring second year
Next year IBM is probably going to come in roaring back into the second half, but in between it's a mess,
consultant looking people point
I'm looking for a new challenge. There comes a point when, as a consultant who suggests to other people what they should do, you want to do it yourself.
adapting budgets companies corporate demand figure focused includes last networking pcs upgrade
Many corporations upgraded their PCs in preparation for Y2K, which boosted demand last year, ... If you figure on a three-year upgrade cycle, companies will not feel a need to upgrade in 2001. Corporate IT budgets are focused more on adapting to the Internet, which includes networking hardware, storage, and e-commerce software.
conclusion flat modest spending split users
This contrasts with some surveys that find flat to down spending in 2002. We wouldn't split hairs; our conclusion is that users see a modest pickup.
although attractive bargain basement communication fallen hardware looking lower relative remain since software stocks tech technology trading
Tech valuations have fallen by about one-third since early-September. Although technology stocks are not at bargain basement prices, semis, communication equipment, and hardware are trading at the lower end of their five-year ranges. These sectors are also looking attractive relative to the S&P 500. Wireless, storage, and software remain expensive.
acting beyond company double entire grow hardware leader pcs position product storage work
Beyond Y2K, IBM's hardware business, PCs and storage servers, it's not been acting well. They are not a leader in many of those product lines. I think they still have more work to do to get into the position where the entire company can then grow at double digits.
appears continue dip double early economy moment recovery
It appears the economy is approaching the moment of truth. Will it double dip as in the early 1980s or continue to recovery as in the early 1990s?
benefit bullish clearly ibm pointed
Clearly they were bullish and they were really pointed to (the fact) that IBM is getting a benefit from the Internet.
asia face pressure
Most vendors will face pressure as Asia worsens.
across becoming due growth industry internet solid suggest sun unix
suggest that UNIX server growth across the industry is accelerating due to a solid Internet build-out. Sun is becoming the new IBM.
cautious company guidance
Tepid company guidance makes us cautious in extrapolating.
along although analysis cost deal per powerful puts result savings support takes trade
Although there are puts and takes along with substantial integration risks, we think our support of the deal will be rewarded. Cost savings and a more powerful vendor should result in a trade to at least the mid-$20s; our sum-of-the-parts analysis comes up with $28 per share.
again believe complete due force goal increasing main previous revenue review sales services
We believe that this services review -- due to complete in mid-August -- is necessary, but will again detract from the main goal of increasing revenue just as the sales force realignment did in previous quarters,
calculate earnings expense few income option practices press pro statement writes
The press writes about questionable practices such as excluding option expense from the income statement and the use of pro forma earnings, but few calculate the earnings impact.