Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
biggest captured center certainly energy increase prices stage
The CPI captured the center stage as it's the biggest one-month increase in 25 years, ... We certainly know why, with energy prices having skyrocketed.
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If you take into account the revisions, the average for the last three months are still very strong. It's consistent with the housing starts number. People are still active in home buying. This decline in January is probably a month dip. It's a head-fake.
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I think the Fed will look at the core number and determine that it was understated, and still raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at the meeting on November 1.
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His statements have set up a pause at the June meeting after they move in May. That doesn't mean we are done. He's leaving the door open to resume hikes at subsequent meetings.
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Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.
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This is in spite of gasoline rebounding 10 to 15 cents in January. This also squares with the jobless claims data.
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Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last year's hurricanes and surging oil prices.
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He's saying the economy is healthy. Inflation is OK for now, but it could become a problem, so we're not done raising rates yet.
keeping wages
People's wages are going up, but they are not keeping up with inflation.
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An unemployment rate below 5 percent is a sign that the job market is getting tight. These kinds of job and wage numbers will keep consumers spending right into spring.
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The results show a stable outlook among business owners for their own sales and profits during the next six months, which suggests they are adapting to higher energy prices and interest rates. Many, however, are taking aggressive steps to counter continued increases in costs for employees' health care coverage, which could mean reductions in benefits for some employees.
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It's a very good report. That's good news post-hurricanes. It shows us the job market is alive and well.
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Stocks and bonds rallied at first, but now have hemmed down. Stocks are coming off a superb day yesterday, so that may be a little profit taking.
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This is a very weak number and well below what everyone expected. It's not the kind of report the Fed likes to see, but I think they'll recognize that the economy is already rebounding and raise the federal funds target rate to 4.5 percent.