Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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This is a very weak number and well below what everyone expected. It's not the kind of report the Fed likes to see, but I think they'll recognize that the economy is already rebounding and raise the federal funds target rate to 4.5 percent.
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An unemployment rate below 5 percent is a sign that the job market is getting tight. These kinds of job and wage numbers will keep consumers spending right into spring.
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These are exactly the kinds of things the Fed likes too see. Signs of a slowing in housing and still-contained inflation are the kinds of numbers that speak to the Fed stopping in May, making that their last rate hike.
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I think the Fed will look at the core number and determine that it was understated, and still raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at the meeting on November 1.
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I thought it was a very favorable number for both Wall Street and Main Street, particularly paired with the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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I think the report was quite strong and will ultimately be positive for stocks.
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Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last year's hurricanes and surging oil prices.
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Overall, this was kind of a vanilla report. These are solid numbers, but the market had already absorbed the fact May was a good month.
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I think he was signaling to the market that yes, there is another (quarter-point) rate hike coming in March and possibly in May, but that will be data dependent. He essentially confirmed what the market has already been pricing in, in terms of rate hikes.
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When the economy is growing faster and businesses want to replenish inventories and make the kind of capital expenditures, mergers and acquisitions that outstrip their internal financing, then they will turn to banks.
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What it does show is that the Federal Reserve has more work to do.
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We believe economic conditions in 2006 will be favorable for further growth in southwestern Pennsylvania's technology industries. Rising business confidence, healthy growth in business investment spending, and increasingly available venture capital will leave our region's technology industries on firmer footing in 2006. A highly diverse technology base and the presence of world-class research institutions mean that, over the longer-term, technology will continue to play an increasingly significant role in the economy of southwest Pennsylvania.
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When you take out transportation, the report should look stronger. In total, manufacturing orders are quite strong, and that reflects a lot of capital spending going on among businesses.
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There is no question that we've entered a new era. The question seems to be how long it will continue, and the jury is still out on that one.