Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last year's hurricanes and surging oil prices.
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When the economy is growing faster and businesses want to replenish inventories and make the kind of capital expenditures, mergers and acquisitions that outstrip their internal financing, then they will turn to banks.
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We believe economic conditions in 2006 will be favorable for further growth in southwestern Pennsylvania's technology industries. Rising business confidence, healthy growth in business investment spending, and increasingly available venture capital will leave our region's technology industries on firmer footing in 2006. A highly diverse technology base and the presence of world-class research institutions mean that, over the longer-term, technology will continue to play an increasingly significant role in the economy of southwest Pennsylvania.
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The NABE panel sees the economy roaring back in early 2006 following the fourth quarter's tepid 1.1 percent growth.
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This is a very weak number and well below what everyone expected. It's not the kind of report the Fed likes to see, but I think they'll recognize that the economy is already rebounding and raise the federal funds target rate to 4.5 percent.
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He's saying the economy is healthy. Inflation is OK for now, but it could become a problem, so we're not done raising rates yet.
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It was a good report right through. As you look through the report there is a noticeable absence of inflation on a broad basis. The numbers, if anything, are steady to lower on inflation and show that it just isn't at all a problem for the economy or the Fed.
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At the same time, many retailers and the automakers have had good June numbers, despite the rise in oil prices (over the last month), ... Overall, there's some relief right now that the economy is indeed strong, but not overheating.
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The economy is regaining momentum and will have a very solid first half of the year. We all feel more confident than we did three months ago, when we were still wondering about the impact of the hurricanes.
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The economy is off to a strong start in 2006 and has fully rebounded from the fourth-quarter setback.
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I think the report was quite strong and will ultimately be positive for stocks.
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Overall, this was kind of a vanilla report. These are solid numbers, but the market had already absorbed the fact May was a good month.
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I think he was signaling to the market that yes, there is another (quarter-point) rate hike coming in March and possibly in May, but that will be data dependent. He essentially confirmed what the market has already been pricing in, in terms of rate hikes.
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What it does show is that the Federal Reserve has more work to do.